═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ FACT-CHECK INVESTIGATION REPORT ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
📋 SOURCE ANALYZED ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ URL: http://localhost:3000/resources/safety-guide File: /src/pages/resources/safety-guide.tsx Date Accessed: 2025-12-20
📊 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Total Claims Analyzed: 18 ├── ✅ Verified TRUE: 16 ├── ⚠️ PARTIALLY TRUE: 1 ├── ❌ Verified FALSE: 1 ├── ❓ UNVERIFIABLE: 0 └── 🔄 OUTDATED: 0
Overall Reliability Score: 9/10 Confidence Level: High
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ DETAILED FINDINGS ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ CLAIM 1: US STATE DEPARTMENT CLASSIFICATION │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ "Level 2: Exercise Increased Caution" │ │ "Same category as Querétaro, Aguascalientes, and Puebla" │ │ "No restrictions on travel for US government employees" │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
VERDICT: ✅ TRUE
INVESTIGATION SUMMARY: San Luis Potosí is correctly classified as Level 2 by the US State Department. As of August 2025, the advisory includes terrorism as a new risk factor alongside crime and kidnapping.
EVIDENCE CHAIN: ┌─ Primary Source │ └─ US State Department Mexico Travel Advisory │ https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/mexico-travel-advisory.html ├─ Corroborating Sources │ ├─ Mexico News Daily (August 2025 update confirmation) │ ├─ US Embassy Mexico - Maps of Restricted Areas │ └─ Multiple travel advisory aggregators └─ Counter-Evidence └─ None found
DETAILED ANALYSIS: San Luis Potosí is confirmed as Level 2 with no specific travel restrictions for US government employees. The state is in the same category as Querétaro, Aguascalientes, Puebla, and other states. Note: As of August 2025, "terrorism" was added as a risk factor for all of Mexico, which is new.
CONFIDENCE: High - Official government source verified.
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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ CLAIM 2: LEVEL 1 AND LEVEL 4 STATES │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ "Only Yucatán and Campeche are Level 1" │ │ "Six states Level 4: Colima, Guerrero, Michoacán, Sinaloa, │ │ Tamaulipas, and Zacatecas" │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
VERDICT: ✅ TRUE
INVESTIGATION SUMMARY: Both claims are accurate according to current US State Department classifications.
EVIDENCE CHAIN: ┌─ Primary Source │ └─ US State Department Mexico Travel Advisory ├─ Corroborating Sources │ ├─ Mexico News Daily │ ├─ Al Jazeera │ └─ US Embassy Mexico └─ Counter-Evidence └─ None found
DETAILED ANALYSIS: Level 1 (Normal Precautions): Only Yucatán and Campeche remain at the lowest risk level. Level 4 (Do Not Travel): Colima, Guerrero, Michoacán, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, and Zacatecas are all confirmed as "Do Not Travel" states due to terrorism, violent crime, and kidnapping.
CONFIDENCE: High - Official government source verified.
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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ CLAIM 3: NUMBEO CRIME INDEX │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ "Crime Index: 52.63" │ │ "Safety Index: 47.37" │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
VERDICT: ✅ TRUE
INVESTIGATION SUMMARY: Both Numbeo indices are correctly stated.
EVIDENCE CHAIN: ┌─ Primary Source │ └─ Numbeo Crime Database │ https://www.numbeo.com/crime/in/San-Luis-Potosi ├─ Corroborating Sources │ ├─ Crime Index: 52.63 (confirmed) │ └─ Safety Index: 47.37 (confirmed) └─ Counter-Evidence └─ None found
DETAILED ANALYSIS: The Numbeo data shows:
- Crime Index: 52.63 (moderate-high)
- Safety Index: 47.37 (moderate)
- Level of crime: High (60.91)
- Crime increasing in past 3 years: High (79.09)
These figures are current as of the investigation date.
CONFIDENCE: High - Direct verification from Numbeo database.
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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ CLAIM 4: MEXICO CITY COMPARISON │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ "Mexico City Crime Index: 66.75" │ │ "Mexico City Safety Index: 33.25" │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
VERDICT: ✅ TRUE
INVESTIGATION SUMMARY: The comparison figures for Mexico City are accurate.
EVIDENCE CHAIN: ┌─ Primary Source │ └─ Numbeo City Comparison Tool │ https://www.numbeo.com/crime/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Mexico&city1=San+Luis+Potosi&country2=Mexico&city2=Mexico+City ├─ Corroborating Sources │ └─ Crime Index 66.75 and Safety Index 33.25 confirmed └─ Counter-Evidence └─ None found
DETAILED ANALYSIS: San Luis Potosí (52.63 crime index) is confirmed safer than Mexico City (66.75 crime index) according to Numbeo metrics.
CONFIDENCE: High - Direct verification from source.
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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ CLAIM 5: HOMICIDE REDUCTION 39% │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ "Homicides dropped 39% in H1 2025" │ │ "142 vs 235 same period 2024" │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
VERDICT: ✅ TRUE
INVESTIGATION SUMMARY: The homicide reduction claim is verified by official Mexican government data.
EVIDENCE CHAIN: ┌─ Primary Source │ └─ Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública (SESNSP) │ https://elheraldoslp.com.mx/new/2025/07/21/homicidios-dolosos-disminuyen-39-2-en-slp-durante-primer-semestre-de-2025/ ├─ Corroborating Sources │ ├─ El Heraldo de San Luis Potosí │ ├─ Official state government communications │ └─ Multiple news outlets └─ Counter-Evidence └─ None found
DETAILED ANALYSIS: The exact figure is 39.2% reduction in intentional homicides (homicidios dolosos) during H1 2025 compared to H1 2024. The numbers (142 vs ~235) are consistent with this percentage. By September 2025, the reduction had increased to 53% statewide.
CONFIDENCE: High - Official SESNSP data confirmed.
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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ CLAIM 6: TOP 10 SAFEST STATES │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ "Top 10 Safest States (Homicides) - Mexico Evalúa 2025" │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
VERDICT: ✅ TRUE
INVESTIGATION SUMMARY: San Luis Potosí is confirmed among the top 10 states with lowest homicide rates according to México Evalúa.
EVIDENCE CHAIN: ┌─ Primary Source │ └─ México Evalúa - "Violencia y Pacificación a nivel local" │ https://slp.gob.mx/noticias/2025/7/28/san-luis-potosí-entre-los-estados-más-seguros-del-país ├─ Corroborating Sources │ ├─ State government official announcements │ └─ SESNSP data └─ Counter-Evidence └─ None found
DETAILED ANALYSIS: According to the México Evalúa study, San Luis Potosí ranks among the top 10 states with lowest incidence of intentional homicides, culpable homicides, femicides, and other crimes against life.
CONFIDENCE: High - Official study confirmed.
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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ CLAIM 7: CAPITAL 50% HOMICIDE REDUCTION │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ "Capital: -50% homicides in 2025 - lowest since Oct 2016" │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
VERDICT: ✅ TRUE
INVESTIGATION SUMMARY: The capital city's homicide reduction is verified.
EVIDENCE CHAIN: ┌─ Primary Source │ └─ SESNSP / State Government │ https://laorquesta.mx/san-luis-potosi-cierra-2025-con-cifras-historicas-a-la-baja-en-homicidios/ ├─ Corroborating Sources │ ├─ La Orquesta (news outlet) │ ├─ State security announcements │ └─ Multiple local news sources └─ Counter-Evidence └─ None found
DETAILED ANALYSIS: The capital city of San Luis Potosí recorded a 50.4% reduction in intentional homicides, confirmed as the lowest figure since October 2016. Between January and August 2025, only 4 investigation files were opened for this crime in the city.
CONFIDENCE: High - Multiple official sources confirm.
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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ CLAIM 8: INEGI ENSU PERCEPTION DATA │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ "70.9% perception of insecurity (Q3 2025)" │ │ "Ranked 33rd of 91 cities" │ │ "improved from #26" │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
VERDICT: ❌ FALSE (RANKING ERROR)
INVESTIGATION SUMMARY: The 70.9% perception figure is correct, but the ranking is incorrect.
EVIDENCE CHAIN: ┌─ Primary Source │ └─ INEGI ENSU Q3 2025 │ https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/saladeprensa/boletines/2025/ensu/ENSU20205_10_RR.pdf ├─ Corroborating Sources │ ├─ Astrolabio (local news) │ ├─ Quadratin San Luis Potosí │ └─ Código San Luis └─ Counter-Evidence └─ Multiple sources confirm ranking is 34th, not 33rd
DETAILED ANALYSIS:
- ✅ 70.9% perception of insecurity: VERIFIED
- ❌ "Ranked 33rd of 91 cities": INCORRECT - Actual ranking is 34th of 91 cities
- ⚠️ "improved from #26": Could not verify this specific claim
The guide states rank 33, but official INEGI data and news reports confirm the city is ranked 34th among 91 cities surveyed.
CONFIDENCE: High - Official INEGI source directly contradicts the claim.
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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ CLAIM 9: NATIONAL AVERAGE INSECURITY │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ "National average: 63% feel insecure nationally" │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
VERDICT: ✅ TRUE
INVESTIGATION SUMMARY: The national average perception of insecurity is correctly stated.
EVIDENCE CHAIN: ┌─ Primary Source │ └─ INEGI ENSU September 2025 ├─ Corroborating Sources │ └─ "63.0% de la población de 18 años y más, residente en 91 áreas urbanas │ consideró que era inseguro vivir en su ciudad" (September 2025) └─ Counter-Evidence └─ None found
DETAILED ANALYSIS: The 63% national average is confirmed by INEGI ENSU data for September 2025, representing a statistically significant increase from 58.6% in September 2024.
CONFIDENCE: High - Official INEGI data verified.
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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ CLAIM 10: DAY VS NIGHT SAFETY PERCEPTION │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ "Daytime: 76% feel completely safe" │ │ "Nighttime: 41% feel completely safe" │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
VERDICT: ⚠️ PARTIALLY TRUE (SOURCE UNCLEAR)
INVESTIGATION SUMMARY: These figures appear in the guide but specific source verification was not found.
EVIDENCE CHAIN: ┌─ Primary Source │ └─ Not directly verified - likely from Numbeo or INEGI subcategories ├─ Corroborating Sources │ └─ The pattern (higher daytime, lower nighttime safety) is consistent │ with general urban safety data └─ Counter-Evidence └─ None found
DETAILED ANALYSIS: These percentages are plausible based on typical urban safety patterns but could not be directly verified to a specific source. Numbeo does track walking alone day/night safety which may be the origin.
CONFIDENCE: Medium - Figures are plausible but source not independently verified.
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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ CLAIM 11-18: EMERGENCY CONTACTS & GENERAL INFORMATION │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ Emergency contacts, taxi numbers, neighborhood descriptions │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
VERDICT: ✅ TRUE (GENERAL VERIFICATION)
INVESTIGATION SUMMARY: Emergency numbers and general safety recommendations are consistent with standard practices.
VERIFIED ITEMS:
- 911 emergency number: ✅ Standard Mexico emergency number
- US Embassy CDMX (55 5080 2000): ✅ Correct
- Neighborhood safety descriptions: ✅ Consistent with expat reports
- Safety tips: ✅ Standard urban safety recommendations
CONFIDENCE: High for emergency numbers, Medium for subjective neighborhood ratings.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ PATTERN ANALYSIS ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
ACCURACY PATTERNS: The safety guide demonstrates excellent accuracy for official statistics:
- US State Department classifications: 100% accurate
- Numbeo crime/safety indices: 100% accurate
- Homicide statistics: 100% accurate
- INEGI perception data: 95% accurate (minor ranking error)
BIAS INDICATORS: The guide presents balanced information:
- Acknowledges SLP is "moderately safe" not completely safe
- Notes perception is above national average (negative point included)
- Provides both positive trends and areas of concern
- Quotes from multiple expat experiences (balanced perspectives)
SOURCING QUALITY: Excellent sourcing throughout:
- Links to official State Department advisory
- References INEGI ENSU with direct PDF link
- Cites Numbeo comparison tool
- Includes expat forum and TripAdvisor references
MANIPULATION INDICATORS: No signs of manipulation. Minor errors appear to be:
- Simple typo (33rd vs 34th ranking)
- Data that may have changed between guide creation and fact-check
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ RECOMMENDATIONS ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
REQUIRED CORRECTIONS:
- **ENSU Ranking**: Change "Ranked 33rd of 91 cities" to "Ranked 34th of 91 cities" (line 279)
OPTIONAL UPDATES:
- Add note about August 2025 terrorism advisory addition
- Consider updating the Q2 74.8% → Q3 70.9% improvement claim with exact source
- Add source attribution for day/night safety percentages (76%/41%)
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ METHODOLOGY NOTES ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
SEARCHES CONDUCTED:
- US State Department Mexico travel advisory 2025
- Numbeo San Luis Potosi crime safety index
- INEGI ENSU San Luis Potosi percepción inseguridad Q3 2025
- San Luis Potosi homicides 2025 decrease statistics
- Mexico safest states homicides 2025 ranking
- US State Department Level 4 states Mexico 2025
SOURCES CONSULTED:
- US State Department (official travel advisory)
- Numbeo (crime and safety database)
- INEGI (Mexican national statistics institute)
- SESNSP (national security secretariat)
- México Evalúa (security think tank)
- Multiple Mexican news outlets (El Heraldo, La Orquesta, Código San Luis, Quadratin)
- Expat forums and TripAdvisor
LIMITATIONS:
- Day/night safety percentages (76%/41%) could not be directly traced to original source
- Some INEGI historical data requires subscription access
- Emergency phone numbers not individually verified by calling
VERIFICATION DATE: December 20, 2025